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Understanding the Strategic and Humanitarian Consequences of Defeating IS in Iraq
Editor: Peter Mitchell
Donal J Trump has done it! Despite his hate speeches, his treatment of women and his view on others faiths and colour of skins etc., He is the new leader of the ‘free world’. He won by a significant lead, reflecting how majority of American people think today!
Earlier this year, IISA published an Annual Strategic Brief as part of the ‘Ibn Khaldun’ paper series (http://iisa.org.uk/ibn-khaldun-paper-series/2016/06/annual-strategic-brief-2016-geopolitics-in-the-middle-east/) focusing on geopolitics in the Middle East. Our main argument was that the state of conflicts and geopolitics in the Middle East is much more complex than conventionally thought, and comprises ‘internal’ and ‘external’ struggles. Internal struggle is between local and regional states and non-states, and external struggle is mainly between Russia and the US.
The AU has announced a cessation of its 22,000 strong peacekeeping mission currently operating in Somalia by the end of 2017. The decision was accelerated in August by a 20 per cent financial cut in sponsorship from the European Union, which forced the Ugandan government, AMISOM’s largest military contingent to initiate a unilateral withdrawal of its forces next year, compounding structural labour shortages.
Earlier this year, the Institute for Islamic Strategic Affairs (IISA) published its Annual Strategic Brief, as part of the IISA Ibn Khaldun paper series, focusing on geopolitics in the Middle East. Our main argument was that state of conflicts and geopolitics in the Middle East is much more complex than conventionally thought, and comprises of ‘internal’ and ‘external’ struggles. The ‘internal’ struggle is between local, regional states and non -states, while the ‘external’ struggle is mainly between Russia and the United States.
The failed coup in Turkey is an extremely important phenomenon in modern Middle Eastern history and its aftermath will be felt both regionally and globally. While the world looks at Erdogan and the counter-coup movement (which have intensified after Wikileaks has publish its documents), the impact on modern Middle Eastern conflicts is not yet a focal point. This report is an attempt to understand how the domestic politics of Turkey will impact the development of its foreign policy and what it would mean for the Syrian conflict and the efforts towards countering the Islamic State (IS).
The killing of Mullah Mansour comes at a crucial time in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This crucial period is characterised by factors on both the state and non-state level. On the state level, the peace process, supported by Pakistan, China and US has stagnated, the Afghan government remains weak and bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are failing. On the non-state level, the Taliban are gaining a resurgence and are taking over territory. The battle for the legitimacy of Jihad is also being waged among different Taliban factions – those that claim loyalty to the Islamic State group (IS) and those that do not. These factors make for an unstable environment, which is why it is important to ask: Why was Mullah Mansour taken out now, and what possible consequences are there for this action?